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Step by step, the international community is moving towards highly dystopian scenarios in the context of diplomacy, in which tools such as OpenAI's ChatGPT or Google's Gemini will lead the drafting of a peace agreement between two countries, or a briefing for a UN Security Council resolution condemning a terrorist group. Anyone who thinks that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution is not going to profoundly change one of the oldest professions in the world and what follows from it, including geopolitics and the foreign policy orientations put forward by well-meaning countries, but also by others, is mistaken.

The recent UN Summit of the Future, held in New York, assertively placed the governance of technology, digital and AI in particular, at the top of the multilateral political agenda through the adoption of the Global Digital Compact GDC. In what has been labelled as possibly the last chance to save multilateralism as we know it, these have been good weeks to remember the urgency of legislation that promotes a sustainable digital world, with respect for people and the planet in equal measure. I would even add that new legislation should encompass solid principles of equality and human rights guidelines, otherwise not only will technology not solve our problems, it will widen the gap between policy and results. It is no coincidence, for example, that AI has made headlines not only as a driver of technological innovation and competitiveness, but also as an accelerator of inequality and instability (think, for instance, of the well-known AI bias). Applied to the field of foreign policy and diplomacy, it seems to me that, in the immediate term, AI appears to us more as a challenge for which we are unprepared than as a benefit.

If, on the one hand, AI can fundamentally change the way diplomacy is carried out by automating and speeding up decision-making, on the other hand, there are numerous warnings about these tools deepening polarisation and undermining liberal democracies, particularly through gaps in the fight against disinformation, propaganda and deepfakes. Then there's war and armed conflict, where drones and cyberattacks guided by algorithms that make autonomous decisions, often with life and death implications and escalating tensions, blur the lines of responsibility between human and machine behaviour, government ethics and the unpredictability of international security.

Nor will access to AI be homogeneous and equitable, with the US and China currently leading the new arms race and the EU following in their wake – this issue is one of the EU’s main geopolitical challenges, as pointed out in the European Commission's 2024 report on the Digital Decade. According to Dealroom, more than half of the world's unicorns (startups valued at more than a billion dollars) were founded or are based in North America. What's more, the role and relevance of AI-focused startups has been steadily increasing and venture capital (VC) investment in this type of innovation has been breaking records every year. There is, therefore, not only a geopolitical race to develop the technology itself, but also to lead its adoption: the poorest countries are light years away from having a chance in this technological race which, as well as being unfair and uneven, fosters and feeds itself from the growing international gap in AI governance.

The challenges, the degree of transformation and the new opportunities are still relatively unpredictable: we will hear about AI in national defence, international security, the economy and human rights. The only certainty is that the intersection between foreign policy and AI is here to stay.

Growing in and out of your 9 to 5

BRAIN FOOD & TOOLS

• Jens Stoltenberg’s reflections on a decisive decade as NATO Secretary General @ German Marshall Fund

• Oana Lungescu, former NATO spox, shares the five tests for the new NATO Chief @ RUSI

• Alexander Stubb, President of the Republic of Finland, Addresses United Nations General Debate, UNGA 79th Session @ United Nations

• Pathways to Peace: Empowering Young Women as Agents of Change (event) @ OSCE 

• The appetite for US defence tech is growing @ Financial Times

• The Global Strategic Trends Report describes a strategic context for defence and security looking out to the middle of the century @ UK Ministry of Defence

JOBS

• Senior/Research Analyst, Defence and Security, Ukraine & CEE @ RAND Europe

• Programme Assistant @ International IDEA

• Senior Policy Analyst for Cyber Security and Digital Issues @ EUISS

• Communications and Events Officer @ ODI

• Communications and Media Officer @ EDRi

• Research coordination core team of consultants @ European Partnership for Democracy

• Office Assistant @ World Bank Haiti

• Project Assistant @ Goethe-Institut Brussels

• HR Expert @ European Women’s Lobby

• Programme and Communications Assistant @ EPLO

• Sexual Reproductive Health and Rights Specialist @ Humanity & Inclusion

• Policy Analyst on Climate and Environment @ FEPS

• Public tender: Infrastructures for Peace, Somalia @ Berghof Foundation

• Director of UK Policy and Advocacy @ The ONE Campaign

• Technical Officer - Gender Equality and Diversity @ World Customs Organisation

• Associate Project Officer @ UNESCO India

• Senior Associate, Internal Communications @ European Climate Foundation

• Policy Intern @ Green European Foundation

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